Australia's total installed photovoltaic capacity will reach 4GW-5GW in 2021
May 18, 2021
According to the quarterly solar energy report of the Australian Energy Commission (AEC), the average solar system scale for residential and small projects in Australia has increased from 2.65 kW in January 2012 to a peak of 8.86 kW in December 2020. The average size of system installations peaks in December each year, and then decreases seasonally in January. Large-scale projects are also showing similar scale growth. From January to March 2021, the number of new installations per month may exceed 85,000. New South Wales continues to lead the states, adding more than 24,400 photovoltaic installations in the first quarter of 2021, with an additional installed capacity of 194MW.
(Source: WeChat public account "Seraph Photovoltaic Energy" ID: seraphim-energy)
Market Situation
Australia's new photovoltaic installations exceeded 4GW in 2020, an increase of 7.5% year-on-year. Among them, rooftop photovoltaic installations below 100kW exceed 3GW, 100kW-5MW photovoltaic installations reach 117MW, and photovoltaic installations above 5MW reach 893MW.
In 2020, the installed capacity of rooftop PV in Australia hit a record high, accounting for 75% of the total installed capacity in 2020. In the fourth quarter, rooftop photovoltaic installations reached 950MW, the highest installed capacity in the quarter since the beginning of SRES. The number of installations exceeded 110,000. Compared with the fourth quarter of 2019, the number of installations and installed capacity increased by 29% and 36%, respectively. Low technology costs and home office mode during the epidemic have greatly increased the installed capacity of rooftop photovoltaics. New South Wales' rooftop photovoltaic installed capacity ranked first, reaching 927MW, an increase of 55% year-on-year in 2019, accounting for 30% of the total rooftop photovoltaic installed capacity in 2020.
In 2020, there will be 22 projects in Australia with a total capacity of 892MW above 5MW. Among them, there are 5 photovoltaic power plant projects with a capacity of more than 100MW. The largest capacity project is Bungala Solar Farm in South Australia, which accounts for 12% of the total capacity.
Foreground prediction
At the end of January 2021, Australia has achieved a large-scale renewable energy target of 33,000GWh power generation on the basis of 12 consecutive months. From the perspective of installed capacity in the fourth quarter of 2020 and early 2021, the installed capacity of rooftop solar in Australia is expected to continue to grow in 2021. According to CER's forecast, 3GW-4GW of rooftop photovoltaics will be installed in 2021. We predict that the total installed photovoltaic capacity in Australia will reach 4GW-5GW in 2021.
While the Australian photovoltaic market is showing a prosperous situation, problems have also arisen-the grid is unable to carry the huge local power transmission. In order to relieve the pressure on the grid, we predict that Australia will further expand the use of energy storage equipment.
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